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Revealed: The cars that will soon be extinct on UK roads

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New research reveals which cars the UK can expect to see for years to come, and which ones will soon disappear forever.

While 1.6 million new cars were registered in 2020 and 2021, this number is still 800,000 lower than the 2.3 million new cars registered in 2019.

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In contrast, the secondhand car market continues to grow, with the number of cars over 13 years old on Britain’s roads growing from 1.3 million in 1994 to more than 6.5 million in 2020 – an increase of 393%.

So, which cars will continue to grow old on UK roads and which ones will disappear never to be seen again? To find out, Van Monster has conducted research to predict which cars are on their way to extinction and which ones will be around for years to come. 

Van Monster has analysed DVLA data from How Many Left to discover the number of cars registered for 52 different models since 1994. The research then calculated the rate of increase and decrease of registrations over the years to predict how many of these cars will be on British roads from 2025 to 2050.

Cars Facing Extinction

Alfa Romeo 90

(Image: Charles01 / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

Sunbeam Vogue

(Image: Charles01 / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

Hyundai Pony

(Image: Charles01 / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

BMW 1500

(Image: nakhon100  / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

Fiat 1300

 (Image: Aconcagua/ Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

Skoda Estelle

 (Image: Asterion  / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

Seat Marbella

(Image: Rudolf Stricker / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

Kia Pride

(Image: Stahlkocher / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

Fiat 133

(Image: Radek Weigel / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

Lancia Trevi

(Image: Tony Harrison / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

By calculating the rate of decline, the research predicts when some of the nation’s most loved cars will be wiped from UK roads completely. Cars such as the Honda Concerto, Kia Pride, SEAT Marbella and Nissan Bluebird are not expected to make it through to the next decade alone.

It’s an even bleaker future when predicting which cars will no longer be seen driving around the UK by 2050. At their rate of decline, both the popular models of the Peugeot 205 and Ford Escort will no longer be driving around on British roads.

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Some are expected to even say their goodbye before then, with the Vauxhall Nova expected to be extinct by 2045. Although half a million of these cars were sold in Britain, now only 900 remain and this number is only expected to get even smaller.

Some vehicles are already clinging onto the road by the skin of their engines. According to the data, there are only three Lancia Trevis driving around on UK soil, two Fiat 133s and Fiat 1300s, and only one BMW 1500.

Cars Defying Extinction

Vauxhall Vectra

(Image: Vauxford / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

Vauxhall Viva

(Image: SG2012 / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

Ford Fiesta

(Image: Rudolf Stricker / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

Ford Focus

(Image: Vauxford / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

Fiat Panda

(Image: Rudolf Stricker / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

Ford Mondeo

(Image: Vauxford / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

Triumph Dolomite

(Image: Tim Green / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

Ford Anglia

(Image: Alf van Beem / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

Triumph Herald

(Image: Charles01 / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

Fiat 124

(Image: Ermell / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

By analysing the rate of registrations cars since 1994, Van Monster has been able to calculate which cars are currently defying extinction and will continue to do so in the future.

The research reveals there are currently 463% more Vauxhall Vivas on UK roads than there was in 1994 and the Viva isn’t the only car still going strong. While production of the widely popular Ford Fiesta started in the 1970s, by 1994 there were over 1.6 million registered in the UK and there’s still a similar number in circulation today (1.5 million). In fact, the research predicts this number will increase by 1% every five years until the fleet returns to its original 1.6 million in 2045.

Likewise, there are currently more than a quarter of a million Ford Mondeos driving around today. While the research predicts this model will not see less than 100,000 cars until 2040 (85,182), production has now ceased with the last Ford Mondeo rolling off the production line in April 2022 – could this speed up the end for this popular family car?

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While some cars will continue to line the streets in their thousands, others are predicted to slowly make a comeback. While there are currently 136 Hillman Hunters on British roads, by 2040 this is expected to be 210. Likewise, The Rover 2000 has declined at a slower than average rate and so 235 will be driving around in 2050, compared to the 742 today.

Gary Sullivan, Managing Director at Van Monster, says, “Everyone has at least one fond car memory– whether it’s from a holiday, or the first car we owned, there’s at least one that we look back on with nostalgia. Even those from our favourite TV shows can be sentimental, just like the Reliant Robin, which has been the joke of many comedies, now only has just over 1,000 left on our roads today.

“With so many new cars being released each year, it’s interesting to see when we may no longer get to see these cars from our past driving around on our streets. “

Van Monster has created an interactive graph so users can compare the extinction rate of some of their favourite cars here: https://www.vanmonster.com/en-gb/favourite-cars-facing-extinction-in-the-uk

Lead image: Peugeot 205 (Image: Vauxford / Wikimedia / Creative Commons)

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