How Wales can qualify for the Euro 2024 finals and what are the permutations 

Back on home turf, Wales welcome Group D leaders Turkey to the Cardiff City Stadium tomorrow night knowing their final position in the table is out of their own hands. However, there is still a glimmer of hope that second place can be achieved to gain automatic qualification. 

Page’s side though will need to produce much more in the offensive third than they did at the Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium to topple a Turkey outfit that convincingly won the reverse fixture on home soil in June and is already guaranteed a place in the finals next summer. 

The timing of the match itself may fall into Page’s side’s hands nicely though with their opponents having nothing to play for. The quality on show from the visitors, however, is not to be underestimated as next summer’s hosts Germany would find out on the weekend being on the wrong end of a 3-2 reverse to their bitter rivals on home soil. 

Wales inconsistencies are to perhaps be expected with the changing of the guard after the conclusion of last Autumn’s World Cup oversaw several stalwarts of the previous golden generation call time on their illustrious international careers. 

For many of the new crop of players, helping Wales qualify for their third championship finals in a row will be seen as some achievement, but one thing under the much-criticised Page is Wales have the potential and belief within the camp to qualify.   

The standards in front of the Red Wall have now been set from the impressive 2-1 victory against World Cup semi-finalists Croatia last month and will most certainly need to be repeated if a result is to be gained against Vicenzo Montella’s well-drilled Turkey side. 

That may still not be enough, however, if Croatia pick up three points as expected in Maksimir against Armenia to seal second place in the group. If Zlatko Dalić’s side do slip up though, a victory for Wales will but enough to automatically go through into December’s draw in Hamburg as they edge the head-to-head record over their rivals. 

Second chance saloon 

The most probable scenario sees the Welsh finish in third position where there will still be another route on offer to Germany, via a play-off round consisting of 12 teams in a ‘semi-final’ phase on March 21, with six ties played in correspondence to the the country’s UEFA Nations League ranking. The winners will then progress to a final match days later on March 26 where the victorious winners of their ties will qualify for the summer’s tournament, joining hosts Germany and the 22 automatic qualifiers. 

We’ve been here before I hear you say. Wales path to the 2022 World Cup finals in Qatar came from the play-off route after finishing third place in their group.  

On that occasion, strong performances in Wales’ Nation’s League campaign placed them as one of the highest-rated six third-placed teams from the European qualifying section. Under Page’s guidance, a semi-final was overcome 2-1 against Austria thanks to a certain Gareth Bale double, before a nervy 1-0 victory against Ukraine sealed qualification in Cardiff in June’s much-delayed fixture. 

Whilst there is no Bale this time around to be the hero, there is likely to be a similar scenario needed in terms of a route to the finals. Wales are no longer in League A, the highest section of the Nations League, but with all 15 teams ranked higher than them already qualified automatically for the finals a spot in the play-off stage is guaranteed. 

The format will remain the same in the play-off semi-finals with the highest ranked teams hosting the fourth-ranked teams. In Wales’ case, as things stand Page’s men will face either Ukraine, Finland, or Iceland at the Cardiff City Stadium. Possibilities of the final opponents would require further permutations; however, one side Wales would like to avoid would be Poland.  

Having surprisingly finished outside of the two placing behind minnows Albania and Czechia the Poles perhaps are maybe not the force they once were. However, home and away defeats to Robert Lewandowski and co for Wales in the last year still prove they are a dangerous proposition. 

Much to think about but come late tomorrow night, Wales’ path one way or another will be that much clearer. 

[Lead image: Football Association of Wales]