The latest Election Polling projection, based on late‑August Wales‑wide polling, updates the July MRP analysis we reported on 1 August. It confirms that Reform UK remains the leading party in nine of ten Westminster constituencies in the region, but also shows Labour clawing back small amounts of support in several key battlegrounds.
A tale of two systems
In Westminster terms, the numbers are brutal for Labour. Seats like Llanelli, Swansea West and Bridgend — once considered safe — would fall decisively to Reform UK, alongside gains from the Liberal Democrats in Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe. Even modest Reform leads in the low‑30s are enough to flip seats outright under first‑past‑the‑post.
But the picture changes dramatically when the same vote shares are run through the Senedd’s new proportional system. Here, Reform’s dominance is diluted: in most six‑member constituencies they take only two or three seats, with Labour and Plaid Cymru sharing the rest. Smaller parties like the Greens and Liberal Democrats also pick up representation where their support is concentrated.
Momentum and movement
Compared with early July, Reform’s vote share has dipped by one or two points in several Westminster seats, while Labour has edged up by a similar margin. These are small shifts, but they suggest the party’s earlier slide may have bottomed out. Plaid Cymru’s position is steady in its rural heartlands, while the Conservatives remain stuck in single digits across most of the region.
In the Senedd projection, there are no changes in South West Wales seat allocations since the July‑based forecast — but the Wales‑wide totals now put Labour and Plaid on 54 seats combined, comfortably above the 49 needed for a majority. That would make a Labour–Plaid coalition the most likely outcome in Cardiff Bay, even as Reform tops the regional vote.
Westminster projections: Reform gains from Labour and Lib Dems
| Constituency | 2024 MP (Party) | Projected Winner & Outcome | Ref | Lab | PC | Con | LD | Oth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llanelli | Nia Griffith (Lab) | Ref – gain from Lab | 40% | 19% | 26% | 5% | 4% | 6% |
| Swansea West | Torsten Bell (Lab) | Ref – gain from Lab | 29% | 23% | 20% | 9% | 11% | 8% |
| Neath & Swansea East | Carolyn Harris (Lab) | Ref – gain from Lab | 27% | 25% | 21% | 7% | 7% | 13% |
| Gower | Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) | Ref – gain from Lab | 33% | 28% | 3% | 16% | 3% | 17% |
| Bridgend | Chris Elmore (Lab) | Ref – gain from Lab | 41% | 24% | 14% | 5% | 7% | 9% |
| Aberafan Maesteg | Stephen Kinnock (Lab) | Ref – gain from Lab | 40% | 20% | 14% | 6% | 13% | 7% |
| Caerfyrddin | Ann Davies (PC) | PC – hold | 38% | 14% | 38% | 8% | 2% | 6% |
| Ceredigion Preseli | Ben Lake (PC) | PC – hold | 48% | 9% | 50% | 10% | 3% | 8% |
| Mid & South Pembrokeshire | Henry Tufnell (Lab) | Ref – gain from Lab | 35% | 18% | 6% | 25% | 6% | 10% |
| Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe | David Chadwick (LD) | Ref – gain from LD | 33% | 18% | 17% | 9% | 18% | 5% |
Updated Senedd projections for South West Wales
| Senedd Constituency | Composed of Parliamentary Seats | Projected MSs (by party) | Change vs early July |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gŵyr Abertawe | Swansea West + Gower | 2 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 Plaid, 1 Lib Dem | No change |
| Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd | Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe + Neath & Swansea East | 2 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 Plaid, 1 Green | No change |
| Afan Ogwr Rhondda | Aberafan Maesteg + Rhondda and Ogmore | 3 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 Lib Dem | No change |
| Sir Gaerfyrddin | Llanelli + Caerfyrddin | 3 Plaid, 2 Reform, 1 Labour | No change |
| Ceredigion Penfro | Ceredigion Preseli + Mid and South Pembrokeshire | 3 Reform, 2 Conservative, 1 Labour | No change |
| Pen‑y‑bont Bro Morgannwg | Bridgend + Vale of Glamorgan | 2 Labour, 2 Reform, 1 Conservative, 1 Plaid | No change |
Why it matters
The contrast between the two systems is stark. Under Westminster rules, Reform UK’s regional lead would translate into a historic series of gains, redrawing the political map of South West Wales almost overnight. Under the Senedd’s proportional system, the same vote shares would produce a far more balanced chamber — and potentially shut Reform out of government altogether.
For voters, it’s a reminder that how we vote can be just as decisive as who we vote for.
