A new survey has looked at which UK cities offer the best opportunities for commercial property success, and which pose the greatest challenges.
Commercial property experts, Alan Boswell Group analysed 31 major UK cities, assessing a variety of metrics including business closure rates, non-residential burglary and shoplifting rates, retail sales performance, long-term flood risk, empty premises relief and rateable value per square metre to reveal the most and least challenging cities to thrive in commercial property.
The top 10 UK cities to thrive in commercial property in 2025
| # | City | Retail sales (relative to the average month in 2019) | Shoplifting rate per 1,000 businesses | Non-residential burglary per 1,000 businesses | No. of business closures per 1,000 businesses | 5-year rateable value per m² (% change) | Long-term flood risk /4 | Final score /10 |
| 1. | Leicester | 100.3% | 6.30 | 1.30 | 128.97 | 3.79% | 3 | 7.06 |
| 2. | Bristol | 99.4% | 9.50 | 1.31 | 117.84 | 2.86% | 1 | 7.00 |
| 3. | Derby | 102.0% | 6.70 | 1.05 | 136.98 | 1.65% | 1 | 6.99 |
| 4. | Brighton and Hove | 114.7% | 11.10 | 1.28 | 136.57 | 3.05% | 1 | 6.88 |
| 5. | Preston | 98.0% | 7.00 | 1.62 | 128.41 | 3.33% | 1 | 6.75 |
| 6. | Southend-on-Sea | 101.2% | 6.60 | 1.04 | 150.40 | 1.79% | 2 | 6.41 |
| 7. | Plymouth | 106.3% | 4.80 | 0.86 | 134.55 | 0.78% | 2 | 6.06 |
| 8. | Swansea | 110.3% | 10.60 | 1.10 | 116.16 | 2.80% | 2 | 5.88 |
| 9. | Luton | 101.9% | 6.40 | 1.38 | 170.25 | 2.96% | 2 | 5.87 |
| 10. | Southampton | 86.2% | 7.30 | 1.18 | 158.78 | 2.78% | 1 | 5.84 |
Scoring a final 5.88/10, Swansea ranks as the eighth best UK city to own a commercial property, standing out with sales reaching 110.3% of 2019 levels. While the city enjoys a relatively low non-residential burglary rate of 1.10 per 1,000 businesses, its higher shoplifting rate of 10.6 per 1,000 businesses weighs down its final score.
Despite this, Swansea fares better than the Welsh capital, Cardiff, which ranks last with a score of just 2.72/10. With 116.16 closures per 1,000 businesses, Swansea benefits from greater stability, whereas Cardiff faces a significantly higher business closure rate of 152.38 per 1,000 businesses.
Leicester is the top city to thrive in commercial property in 2025
Leicester claims the top spot as the best UK city to own a commercial property in 2025, boasting an impressive final score of 7.06/10. With retail sales at 100.3% of 2019 levels, the city has fully bounced back post-pandemic. Commercial properties remain an attractive investment, with a modest 3.79% increase in rateable value over five years, as well as relatively low crime rates, with only 6 shoplifting cases and around 1 non-residential burglary per 1,000 businesses.
Bristol ranks second with low business closure rates and low long-term flood risk
Bristol ranks as a top city for commercial property investment, scoring 7/10 overall. Thanks to a relatively low business closure rate of 118 per 1,000 businesses, the South West city offers a supportive landscape for enterprises to thrive. Investors also benefit from one of the lowest long-term flood risks in the UK, making Bristol a safer bet for commercial property. While the city faces a slightly higher crime rate – with 9 shoplifting incidents per 1,000 businesses – a 2.86% increase in rateable value indicates steady property demand over five years.
In third place is Derby, earning a final score of 6.99/10. Compared to 2019 levels, Derby’s commercial property landscape benefitted from 102% in city centre retail sales, indicating healthy consumer spending in the city. Safety is another advantage, with non-residential burglaries remaining low at just 1 per 1,000 businesses. With slightly lower empty premises relief to be provided in 2024-5 at £193,291 per 1,000 businesses – compared to its East Midlands counterpart Leicester, with £261,469 per 1,000 businesses – this could hint at fewer vacancies and a more stable occupancy rate in Derby.
Rounding off the top five best UK cities to own a commercial property are Brighton and Hove (6.88/10) and Preston (6.75/10). While retail sales soar to 114.7% of 2019 levels – the fourth highest growth among all cities analysed – the seaside city faces higher business closure rates (136.57 per 1,000 businesses) and crime levels, reporting 11 shoplifting cases per 1,000 businesses. Meanwhile, Preston offers a more stable business environment with a lower crime rate (7 shoplifting cases per 1,000 businesses) and a higher business survival rate (128 closures per 1,000 businesses).
The 10 most challenging UK cities to thrive in commercial property in 2025
| # | City | Retail sales (relative to the average month in 2019) | Shoplifting rate per 1,000 businesses | Non-residential burglary per 1,000 businesses | No. of business closures per 1,000 businesses | 5-year rateable value per m² (% change) | Long-term flood risk /4 | Final score /10 |
| 1. | Cardiff | 100.1% | 10.60 | 1.10 | 152.38 | -1.86% | 4 | 2.72 |
| 2. | Birmingham | 89.5% | 8.90 | 1.81 | 158.01 | 0.00% | 2 | 2.78 |
| 3. | Bradford | 101.6% | 9.50 | 2.00 | 144.46 | 0.00% | 4 | 3.34 |
| 4. | Coventry | 86.6% | 8.90 | 1.81 | 184.96 | 0.79% | 1 | 3.37 |
| 5. | Newport | 104.1% | 7.70 | 1.41 | 155.15 | 2.22% | 4 | 3.66 |
| 6. | Wolverhampton | 101.9% | 8.90 | 1.81 | 252.89 | 1.87% | 3 | 3.81 |
| 7. | Leeds | 100.1% | 9.50 | 2.00 | 130.43 | 0.00% | 1 | 3.97 |
| 8. | Manchester | 104.8% | 6.90 | 11.49 | 140.42 | -0.60% | 1 | 4.16 |
| 9. | Northampton | 99.0% | 6.10 | 1.18 | 187.72 | 2.33% | 2 | 4.28 |
| 10. | Newcastle upon Tyne | 114.7% | 10.80 | 1.50 | 128.66 | -3.09% | 1 | 4.47 |
Cardiff places last for highest long-term flood risk and shoplifting rates
Alan Boswell Group revealed that Cardiff ranks last as the UK’s most challenging city for commercial property success, scoring just 2.72/10. With a staggering 152 closures per 1,000 businesses and the nation’s highest long-term flood risk, commercial investment prospects may appear bleak compared to other cities. Additionally, a 1.86% decline in rateable value over five years signals waning commercial desirability in the Welsh capital, coupled with a relatively high shoplifting rate of around 10 cases per 1,000 businesses.
Birmingham follows closely behind, with an overall score of 2.78/10. The city’s high business closure rate of 158 per 1,000 businesses – among the highest in the UK – combined with a relatively weak retail sales performance at 89.5% of 2019 levels may make it harder to thrive in the retail sector. A stagnant 0% rateable value growth over five years further suggests that commercial properties in Birmingham are not appreciating in value, which could signal weaker market growth and may deter commercial investors.
Bradford stands out with high business closure rates and non-residential burglaries
Bradford rounds out the bottom three with a score of 3.34/10, reflecting its high crime rates and struggling commercial landscape. With over 144 business closures per 1,000 businesses, the survival rate for enterprises is low. Security concerns are also prominent, with 9 shoplifting incidents and 2 non-residential burglaries per 1,000 businesses.
Wendy Burgess, from Alan Boswell Group, has commented on the evolving commercial property landscape in the UK: “The UK’s commercial property market is undergoing a complex recovery, with investor interest growing in certain regions, while challenges persist in others. The surge in demand seen in Q4 2024 suggests a cautious optimism, yet it’s clear that the outlook varies significantly by location. Cities like Leicester and Bristol benefit from strong retail sales and appreciating property values, while cities such as Cardiff and Birmingham face significant hurdles, including high business closures and stagnant property value growth.
“Cities with higher crime rates may face rising premiums for burglary and theft coverage, while locations at greater risk of flooding, such as Cardiff, will require more specialised flood protection to safeguard assets. With fluctuating property values and the potential for higher vacancy rates, property owners must review their insurance policies regularly. Engaging proactively with insurers can help mitigate potential risks and ensure that coverage aligns with both market conditions and local hazards.”
