SENEDD ELECTION: Race between Plaid and Reform on a knife-edge as two major new polls show Wales is heading for historic result

Two major polls published this week have painted a remarkably consistent picture of where Wales stands with two weeks to go until the Senedd election: a historic race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, Labour in third place, and an outcome that nobody can predict with confidence.

The most detailed of the two is YouGov’s second MRP for ITV Cymru Wales, produced in partnership with Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre on a sample of 2,387 Welsh adults between April 6 and 15. It projects Reform UK on 37 seats and Plaid Cymru on 36 — a significant tightening since YouGov’s first MRP last month, when Plaid led by a wider margin. Both parties are tied on 29% of the vote in the latest YouGov model, with Labour on 13%, the Greens on 10%, Conservatives on 8%, and the Liberal Democrats on 6%.

The Ipsos poll, published today and conducted between April 2 and 8 on a sample of 747 Welsh adults, puts Plaid Cymru at 30% and Reform UK at 25%, with Labour on 15%. Half of Welsh voters say they may yet change their minds — 52% — while Reform voters are the most committed, with just 32% saying they could switch compared to 53% of Plaid supporters.

That commitment gap is significant. Reform UK has been particularly effective at converting those who consider voting for them into firm intenders, with a conversion rate of 81%, while the Green Party has struggled to convert interest into voting intention at just 27%.

What it means for coalition arithmetic

Neither party is close to the 49 seats needed for a majority in the 96-member Senedd, meaning some form of co-operation between parties would be required to elect a First Minister.

Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre offered a telling observation about the race, saying that finishing first may matter less than it appears. “Whichever party leads on seats will face the same coalition arithmetic, and that arithmetic is far more favourable to Plaid than to Reform,” he said.

Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has expressed a preference for forming a minority Plaid government, but would still need the assistance of Labour and either the Greens or the Lib Dems for a majority. Plaid and Labour together hold a majority in 47% of YouGov’s simulations.

Eluned Morgan’s seat

One of the most closely watched individual outcomes remains that of First Minister Eluned Morgan. The YouGov MRP projects that Morgan would not be returned to the Senedd — because on these figures Labour win no seats at all in Ceredigion Penfro, the constituency she is standing in. This directly contradicts the More in Common MRP we reported earlier this week, which suggested she would narrowly survive with Labour taking one of the six seats in Ceredigion Penfro. The two models agree that the outcome is on a knife-edge, but disagree on which side of the line she falls.

What the data says for our area

The raw constituency data from the YouGov MRP reveals some significant differences from the More in Common projections we reported earlier this week — particularly for Labour across south and west Wales.

In Gŵyr Abertawe (Swansea), YouGov projects Reform UK winning on 29%, ahead of Plaid on 27% and Labour on 16%. The seat breakdown gives Reform 2, Plaid 2, Labour 1 and the Greens 1 — a notable difference from More in Common, which projected Labour taking 2 seats. On YouGov’s figures, a Green candidate would take the sixth seat at Labour’s expense.

In Sir Gaerfyrddin (Carmarthenshire), the picture is even starker for Labour. Plaid lead on 37% with Reform on 31% and Labour on just 10%. YouGov projects Plaid 3 and Reform 3 — with Labour taking no seats at all. More in Common had given Labour one seat in the constituency, which would have returned Calum Higgins as Labour’s lead candidate.

In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, YouGov projects Reform winning on 30%, with Plaid on 25%, Labour 12% and the Lib Dems also on 12%. The seat split is Reform 2, Plaid 2, Labour 1, Lib Dems 1 — with the Conservatives projected to win no seats, in contrast to the More in Common MRP which gave them one.

In Ceredigion Penfro (Pembrokeshire), Plaid dominate on 38% with Reform on 27%. YouGov projects Plaid 3, Reform 2, Greens 1 — and no Labour seat, meaning Eluned Morgan would not be returned on these figures.

In Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg (Bridgend), Reform lead on 31%, Plaid on 25%, Labour on 15%. YouGov projects Reform 2, Plaid 2, Labour 1, Conservatives 1 — again one fewer Labour seat than More in Common projected.

In Afan Ogwr Rhondda (Neath Port Talbot), Reform lead strongly on 36%, Plaid on 29%, Labour on 17%. Both models agree here: Reform 3, Plaid 2, Labour 1 — meaning Huw Irranca-Davies as Deputy First Minister would narrowly hold his seat as Labour’s sole representative.

The Conservatives and smaller parties

The Welsh Conservatives are on 8% in the YouGov model and projected to return three members — but not including their leader Darren Millar on this round of results. The Greens are forecast to elect seven MSs, while the Lib Dems win only a single seat on the median projection — Jane Dodds in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd — leaving the party short of the five seats needed to form a political group in the Senedd.

The bigger picture

Both polls point to a result that would have been unthinkable at the last Senedd election in 2021. Had that election been conducted under the new electoral system, Plaid Cymru would have won 24 seats and Reform UK would have won none.

The Ipsos research also highlights the wider public mood. Around 62% of Welsh adults disagree that the Welsh Labour Government deserves to be re-elected, and high dissatisfaction ratings attach to both Keir Starmer and Eluned Morgan. Rhun ap Iorwerth is the only party leader in Wales with a positive net satisfaction rating, though 59% of Welsh adults disagree that Reform UK is ready to form a government.

The picture across all recent polling is of a country that wants change but hasn’t yet settled on what form that change should take. The Wales-wide five-poll moving average currently puts Plaid Cymru on 28.6%, Reform UK on 26.8%, and Labour on 16.8%.

The Senedd election takes place on Thursday, May 7, 2026. For our full coverage of what the polls mean for every constituency in our area, see our More in Common MRP analysis.