Reform UK has topped the poll in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd – taking three of the constituency’s six Senedd seats in another major breakthrough result for Nigel Farage’s party.
Plaid Cymru took two seats in the constituency, with Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds holding on to take the sixth and final seat for her party.
Welsh Labour was wiped out entirely – failing to win a single seat in a constituency that covers the upper Swansea Valley, Powys and parts of Neath Port Talbot.
It is the second south-west Wales constituency in which Welsh Labour has been completely shut out today, following a similar wipe-out in Sir Gaerfyrddin earlier this afternoon.
The result is significant on several fronts.
For Reform UK, topping the poll in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd marks the second south Wales constituency in which the party has come first – following its win in Casnewydd Islwyn earlier in the day. The party also won three seats in Sir Gaerfyrddin and three in Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni.
For Plaid Cymru, two seats in a rural constituency where the party has historically performed strongly is a respectable but slightly disappointing return – particularly given how strongly the party has done elsewhere in Wales today.
And for the Welsh Liberal Democrats, Jane Dodds holding on is a significant moment.
Dodds was the only Liberal Democrat MS in the previous Senedd, and her re-election ensures her party retains its presence at Cardiff Bay.
It is also the Welsh Lib Dems’ first confirmed seat of the day – giving the party a foothold in the new 96-seat Senedd that it has secured against difficult conditions for smaller parties under the new D’Hondt voting system.
Dodds had said during the campaign that she hoped her party would return a larger group than the single seat it secured in 2021.
For Welsh Labour, the result adds to a deeply difficult day. The party has now been wiped out entirely in Sir Gaerfyrddin, Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni and Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd – and reduced to a single seat in several other constituencies.
The result comes as Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan has lost her own seat in neighbouring Ceredigion Penfro and resigned as Welsh Labour leader.
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd is a vast and varied constituency stretching from the upper Swansea Valley up through Powys and across into rural Neath Port Talbot – taking in Ystradgynlais, Pontardawe, Brecon and the surrounding areas.
The constituency recorded a turnout of 52.98% – above the national average of 51.65%, which itself was a record for a Senedd election.
Higher turnout has been described throughout the campaign as a positive indicator for Reform UK, with the party having focused much of its strategy on mobilising voters who had not traditionally turned out at Welsh elections.
The new Members of the Senedd for Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd will now take their seats when the seventh Senedd meets for the first time in the coming weeks.
Across Wales as a whole, polling expert Sir John Curtice has projected Plaid Cymru will win between 41 and 46 seats – short of the 49 needed for an overall majority – with Reform UK on 32 to 34.
That makes coalition negotiations almost certain to follow once all 16 constituencies have declared.
Attention now turns to Gwyr Abertawe – the Swansea constituency where the count is still under way, with declarations expected later this evening.
