The polls have closed across Wales – and the most consequential Senedd election in Welsh history now moves into its final phase.
Voters across the country headed to polling stations between 7am and 10pm today to elect the 96 Members of the seventh Senedd, in what could prove to be a historic moment for Welsh politics.
But unlike a UK General Election, there is no exit poll for the Senedd vote. The first results will not be known until tomorrow.
Here’s what happens between now and then – and how the new voting system will decide who wins.
What happens overnight?
Ballot boxes from polling stations across each of the 16 new constituencies are being transported to count venues across Wales tonight.
Once they arrive, ballot papers are sorted and verified – but no counting takes place until the formal count begins on Friday morning.
When does counting start?
Counting will begin from 9am on Friday morning across all 16 constituencies.
When will we know the first results?
The first constituency declarations are expected from late morning on Friday. The full picture across all 16 constituencies should be clear by Friday afternoon or evening.
How does the new voting system work?
This is where things get interesting – because for the first time in Welsh history, all Senedd seats will be allocated using a fully proportional system.
There are now 96 Senedd Members instead of 60, elected from 16 enlarged constituencies that each return six MS.
Voters cast a single vote for a political party – or for an independent candidate – rather than for a named individual.
The seats are then allocated using something called the D’Hondt formula.
What is the D’Hondt formula?
The D’Hondt formula was devised in 1878 by Belgian mathematician Victor D’Hondt and is widely used in proportional voting systems across Europe.
It allocates seats in a way designed to closely reflect each party’s share of the vote.
Each party submits a list of up to eight candidates, ranked in order. The candidate at the top of the list is elected first if the party wins one seat. If they win two, the top two are elected, and so on.
Independent candidates stand alone – and are elected if they receive enough votes in their own right.
How are the seats actually allocated?
The six seats in each constituency are allocated one at a time, in rounds.
In the first round, the party with the highest total number of votes wins the first seat.
After that party has won a seat, its vote total is divided by two – and the calculation begins again. The party with the highest figure at that point wins the second seat.
If a party then wins a second seat, its original vote total is divided by three. And so on.
This continues until all six seats in each constituency are filled.
A worked example
To show how the D’Hondt system works in practice, here’s a fictional six-seat constituency where four parties and one independent candidate are competing for the votes.
The starting position – based on the votes cast – looks like this:
| Party A | Party B | Party C | Party D | Independent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | 300 | 210 | 120 | 30 | 10 |
Round 1: Party A has the most votes and wins the first seat. The first candidate on their list is elected.
Party A’s vote total is then divided by two (1 + 1 seat already won = 2). That gives them a new total of 150.
Round 2: Party B now has the highest figure (210) and wins a seat. The first candidate on their list is elected.
Party B’s votes are then divided by two – giving them 105.
Round 3: Party A now leads again (150) and wins a second seat. The second candidate on their list is elected.
Party A’s original 300 votes are now divided by three (1 + 2 seats already won) – giving them 100.
This process continues round by round. The full table looks like this:
| Party A | Party B | Party C | Party D | Independent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | 300 | 210 | 120 | 30 | 10 |
| Round 1 | 300 | 210 | 120 | 30 | 10 |
| Round 2 | 150 | 210 | 120 | 30 | 10 |
| Round 3 | 150 | 105 | 120 | 30 | 10 |
| Round 4 | 100 | 105 | 120 | 30 | 10 |
| Round 5 | 100 | 105 | 60 | 30 | 10 |
| Round 6 | 100 | 70 | 60 | 30 | 10 |
| Seats won | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
So in this example, Party A wins three seats, Party B wins two, and Party C wins one.
In percentage terms, Party A took 45% of the vote and won 50% of the seats. Party B took 31% and won 33.3% of the seats. Party C took 18% and won 16.6% of the seats.
That’s how the new system makes sure the number of seats each party wins is much closer to their share of the vote – though as the example shows, smaller parties polling below around 12% are unlikely to win representation.
Will every party get a seat?
No – there is a practical threshold for winning representation under D’Hondt.
Although there is no formal vote threshold, in six-member constituencies a party will typically need around 12% to 13% of the vote to win a seat.
Smaller parties polling below that level are unlikely to gain representation, although strong local campaigns can change the picture.
Which seats matter most locally?
Across south-west Wales, six new constituencies are being closely watched:
- Gŵyr Abertawe – covering Swansea and the surrounding area
- Sir Gaerfyrddin – covering Carmarthenshire and parts of Llanelli
- Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd – covering the upper Swansea Valley, Powys and Neath
- Ceredigion Penfro – covering Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion
- Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg – covering Bridgend
- Afan Ogwr Rhondda – covering Port Talbot and the surrounding valleys
What’s at stake?
The election will determine who forms the next Welsh Government – with 49 seats needed for a majority in the new 96-seat Senedd.
Pre-election polling suggested it is unlikely any single party will reach that threshold, meaning coalition negotiations are likely to follow the count.
What about Welsh Labour?
Welsh Labour has been in power in Wales – either alone or in coalition – since the Senedd was first established in 1999.
Pre-election polling suggested Labour faces its toughest test yet, with the party predicted to drop significantly from the 30 seats it won in 2021.
When will the new Senedd meet?
The seventh Senedd is expected to meet for the first time in the weeks following the election, with the formal swearing-in of new Members and the election of a new Llywydd among the first orders of business.
Coalition negotiations – if needed – will determine when a new First Minister can be elected.
What time does Swansea Bay News begin its results coverage?
We’ll be reporting all the live updates and reaction from across south-west Wales as results come in throughout the day.
Stay tuned.
