Swansea City are set for a season of mid-table safety in 2026/27 — but at least they’ll finish above Cardiff City, according to a pre-season “supercomputer.”
The model, put together by betting firm Parimatch UK Sportsbook, has simulated the entire new Championship season before a ball has even been kicked.
It puts Swansea 11th out of 24, on 64 points — 17 wins, 13 draws and 16 defeats, with a goal difference of just plus-one.
That would leave the Swans six points adrift of the play-off places, but a long way clear of any relegation worries.
For derby bragging rights, though, it makes happier reading. The model has Cardiff City down in 18th on 52 points — seven places and 12 points below Swansea.
There’s a Welsh feel-good story at the top end too. The model tips Wrexham to finish sixth and then win the play-offs, completing a fourth promotion in five seasons for Hollywood owners Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds.
At the very top, it backs relegated West Ham United to win the title and bounce straight back to the Premier League, with Wolverhampton Wanderers taking the second automatic spot.
Southampton are tipped to miss out on automatic promotion in third, with Burnley, Middlesbrough, Wrexham, Millwall and Sheffield United filling the eight-team play-offs.
At the bottom, the model predicts a grim campaign for Lincoln City, who are forecast to finish dead last. Charlton Athletic and Blackburn Rovers are tipped to join them in dropping to League One.
So how does it all work? The model is a probability calculator rather than a crystal ball, and its makers stress it carries no human bias.
It rates every team on factors including player quality, manager quality, recent form and betting-market movements, then predicts a score for every single fixture.
It runs the whole season 10,000 times over, adding a dash of randomness so that upsets still happen, and averages out the results into one final table.
The makers are clear it’s a bit of fun and a snapshot of the odds as they stand — not a forecast set in stone. Plenty can change before the season kicks off, let alone over 46 games.
Here’s how the supercomputer thinks the full table will look come May:
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United (C) | 46 | 27 | 11 | 8 | +40 | 92 |
| 2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers (P) | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | +35 | 88 |
| 3 | Southampton | 46 | 25 | 10 | 11 | +32 | 85 |
| 4 | Burnley | 46 | 23 | 12 | 11 | +22 | 81 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | +18 | 78 |
| 6 | Wrexham (POW) | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | +15 | 76 |
| 7 | Millwall | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | +12 | 73 |
| 8 | Sheffield United | 46 | 20 | 11 | 15 | +8 | 71 |
| 9 | Norwich City | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | +6 | 69 |
| 10 | West Bromwich Albion | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | +4 | 66 |
| 11 | Swansea City | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | +1 | 64 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 46 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 0 | 62 |
| 13 | Derby County | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | -2 | 61 |
| 14 | Birmingham City | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | -4 | 59 |
| 15 | Stoke City | 46 | 15 | 12 | 19 | -8 | 57 |
| 16 | Preston North End | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | -10 | 55 |
| 17 | Watford | 46 | 13 | 15 | 18 | -12 | 54 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | -15 | 52 |
| 19 | Queens Park Rangers | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | -18 | 50 |
| 20 | Bolton Wanderers | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | -22 | 48 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | -25 | 47 |
| 22 | Blackburn Rovers (R) | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | -28 | 43 |
| 23 | Charlton Athletic (R) | 46 | 9 | 13 | 24 | -32 | 40 |
| 24 | Lincoln City (R) | 46 | 8 | 12 | 26 | -37 | 36 |
The new Championship season gets under way in August.
When the fun stops, stop. Anyone worried about their gambling, or someone else’s, can find free, confidential support at BeGambleAware.org or on the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133.
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