SWANSEA CITY: Supercomputer says 14th again for the Swans. Where do you have them finishing?

Another season of mid-table anonymity is what the machines are forecasting for the Swans, and this latest model makes gloomier reading than the last. Swansea supporters may have other ideas.

A supercomputer run by betting site Casinolyze puts Swansea City 14th of 24 in the Championship, on 61 points from 18 wins, seven draws and 21 defeats.

That comes with a goal difference of minus three, and a finish three places lower than a rival model handed the Swans in June.

That earlier projection, published by Parimatch, had Swansea 11th on 64 points and a goal difference of plus one.

The squad has changed since. Stoke signed midfielder Ethan Galbraith for an eight-figure fee at the end of June, a year after he arrived at the Swansea.com Stadium.

Cardiff City come off worse again. The new model has the Bluebirds 19th on 52 points, five places and nine points below Swansea.

Wrexham are given eighth and 73 points, enough to reach the expanded play-offs, where Casinolyze have them losing 2-1 at Middlesbrough in the eliminator round.

That is a downgrade for the Red Dragons too. In June they were tipped to finish sixth and win the play-offs outright.

Birmingham City are placed ninth on 71 points, two points off the top eight.

At the top, the model backs Wolverhampton Wanderers for the title with 96 points, with West Ham United second on 92 and going straight back up alongside them.

Southampton are tipped to miss out on automatic promotion by six points, then win the expanded play-offs, beating Sheffield United 2-1 after extra time.

Lincoln City are forecast to finish bottom on 32 points, with Blackburn Rovers and Charlton Athletic going down with them. Promoted Bolton Wanderers are expected to survive in 21st.

Casinolyze say the model pairs what they describe as agentic AI with probability algorithms, rating each club on Elo scores adjusted for whether sides have over or underperformed their expected goals.

It then simulates every fixture, running the season 10,000 times and averaging where each club lands. Betting market movements, sentiment analysis and past results feed the ratings.

It all plays out in a rare season with all three of Wales’s biggest clubs in the same division, the first since 1981, and two south Wales derbies in the diary.

Models are probability calculators rather than crystal balls, and supporters who watched last season will have their own view. So where do you have the Swans finishing, and does 14th feel harsh or about right? Let us know in the comments.

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Author

Kit Peters

Kit Peters is a journalist and the editor of Swansea Bay News, covering Swansea, Neath Port Talbot and Carmarthenshire since 2020.