With just six days until Wales goes to the polls in the most significant Senedd election in the country’s history, new research from Aberystwyth and Swansea universities reveals that two-thirds of voters don’t understand the new voting system they’ll be using.
The Welsh Election Study 2026, based on survey responses from 10,000 people across Wales, found that 88% of respondents were either incorrect or simply didn’t know how the new closed list electoral system works – with barely one in ten understanding it correctly.
The findings are particularly striking given that the election on 7 May will be the first time Welsh voters use the new system, which sees Wales divided into 16 larger constituencies each returning six Members of the Senedd. Instead of splitting their vote between a constituency representative and a regional list as in previous elections, voters will cast a single vote for a party or independent candidate – with seats allocated proportionally.
Our own coverage has shown that the new system could produce a dramatically different result from any previous Senedd election, with polling putting Plaid Cymru and Reform UK neck and neck and Labour facing a historic collapse.
The study also found widespread confusion about which level of government is responsible for key policy areas. Around half of respondents were either incorrect or unaware that the Senedd controls the NHS, agriculture and economic development. Only 40% knew that policing remains a reserved matter for the UK Government.
The generational gap in political knowledge was stark. Only 28% of respondents aged 16 to 25 knew that the Welsh Government is responsible for the NHS – compared with nearly 63% of those aged 65 and over. This is the first Senedd election in which 16 and 17-year-olds have been able to vote, making the finding particularly significant.
Despite the knowledge gaps, the survey found that most people in Wales were genuinely interested in politics. Around 59% said they were fairly or very interested in the forthcoming Senedd election – though that interest has not translated into a clear understanding of how their vote will work.
Trust in government was low across the board. More than two-thirds of respondents reported limited or no trust in the UK Government, and almost half said the same about the Welsh Government. More than 60% felt they had no influence over UK Government decisions, with slightly better but still pessimistic figures for Wales and local government.
When asked to describe the upcoming Senedd election in one word, 83% of respondents chose words expressing negative emotions – with disappointment, frustration and worry the most common themes.
Dr Anwen Elias from Aberystwyth University, who co-leads the study, said the findings raised important questions about democratic participation. “These findings provide an important insight into how people in Wales understand and engage with politics at a crucial moment ahead of the Senedd election. They highlight gaps in awareness of major electoral reforms and raise important questions about democratic participation, trust in government, and how well-informed people feel when making political decisions,” she said.
Dr Bettina Petersohn from Swansea University added that despite the low knowledge base, voters remained engaged. “The responses show that people have generally positive attitudes towards key democratic processes in Wales, are interested in the upcoming election, with a majority thinking that it makes a difference who will win the Senedd election,” she said. “At the same time, the level of knowledge about the new electoral system was low at the start of the electoral campaign.”
The Welsh Election Study 2026 is a four-year research project funded by UKRI’s Economic and Social Research Council, bringing together researchers from Aberystwyth University and Swansea University in partnership with WISERD. The survey was conducted by Ipsos UK with a representative sample of 10,001 adults aged 16 and over, between 26 February and 7 April 2026.
