As the Ospreys prepare for their Judgement Day fixture against bitter rivals Cardiff it is not just bragging rights at stake this time around in the fierce south Wales derby.
With the Welsh Shield already in the bag as the top-performing region, the Ospreys will be looking to secure a European spot amongst rugby’s elite by finishing within the URC top-eight and a place in the end of season league play-offs.
It is, however, very much a long shot for Toby Booth’s side but a bonus point 26-13 victory over the Dragons last time out at the Swansea.com Stadium has just left the door slightly ajar.
Qualification will be out of the Ospreys hands if results do not go their way before kick-off in the Welsh capital come 5.30pm tomorrow afternoon.
If lady luck does shine a light on Booth’s side, however, with a few permutations occurring from the other games final round of fixtures a five-point bonus-point win would be needed.
It would be a dramatic conclusion to the league format for the Ospreys, but in a season of upsets, pulsating firsts, and never-say-die performances, you wouldn’t bet against the Welsh region being part of the final say in the twists and turns of the final URC placings.
“By the time we are into the warm-up we will know [the result needed to make the play-offs],” said head coach Toby Booth ahead of the game.
“From our point-of-view, it is an important fixture for us because there is something on it.
“If those things are taken out of our hands, it won’t be from what we do on Judgement Day, it’ll be on what we have done before.
“I have really enjoyed the year though. I have seen a group of young players take up the mantle that has gone on before.
“The nature of the performances with no losses. The European game against the Lions away, the Ulster last minute drop-goal. There have been a lot of positives around people grabbing the mantle and wanting to move forward.”
The Ospreys themselves have explained the permutations needed to help their fans work out where they stand at the end of Saturday night. This is what they had to say.
“The boys are still in contention for a knockout spot. With so many final table permutations on the cards, we thought we’d break down exactly what needs to happen for Ospreys to qualify. We’re the last game of the round, so we’ll know ahead of kick-off what’s needed.
“We need a five-point win. Four tries. Bonus point. Hapus. This is essential and takes us to two crucial numbers: 50 points and 10 wins.
“If we can’t secure five points then we don’t progress to the knockouts, even if the below results go our way. If we get the points in the bag, then this is what we need from the other teams.”
League placement will be calculated by league points, total number of wins and points difference. First up comes tonight’s contest between Leinster (3rd) and Connacht (10th) at RDS Arena, Dublin.
“In this fixture, Connacht can win but mustn’t pick up a bonus point. Anything more than four points would put them on 50 points and ten wins, where they would pip us to the eighth spot due to points difference (unless an Ospreys win of 42 more points)”
As long as Connacht do not secure a bonus point win, the Ospreys will go into Saturday still in contention.
Saturday lunchtime sees the battle between two of the South African provinces in Stormers (5th) v Lions (9th) in Cape Town.
“Emirates Lions must lose this fixture. Lions are currently on 49 points, so we need them not to go above 50, or that pushes us out of contention.
“They can, however, lose and secure a singular point (either a losing bonus or try bonus point.) This would take them to 50 points, but as they would have only won nine games in the 23/24 season, we would go ahead of them by beating Cardiff with a bonus point and finishing on 10 wins.”
Also, on Saturday lunchtime sees the pivotal match-up between Benetton (8th) and Edinburgh (7th) in Treviso.
“In this fixture, both clubs are currently on 49 points and so we need a winner. There can’t be a draw as it would take both teams to 51 points, making our hypothetical 50-point finish too little too late. An outright winner, who has 53 or 54 points, would proceed.
“If the loser doesn’t get a bonus point and finishes on 49 points then Ospreys will finish in eighth place on 50 points and ten wins. If the loser gets two bonus points and finishes on 51 points, we’re out.
“But, if either team gets a single losing bonus point to reach 50 points, then it’s a bit more complicated . . .
“If Edinburgh lose with a bonus point, they’d match our 50 points but trump us on total wins (11 v 10), so would therefore take the eighth spot and knock us out.
“If Benetton lose but get a bonus point, we’d be drawn on 50 points and would both have ten wins. It would therefore come down to points difference. Ospreys sit at -39 and Benetton on -14. If points difference finished as is then they’d pip us to eighth place.
“If Benetton’s bonus point is from four tries scored, it would be a tough ask for us to overcome that deficit, even after scoring at least four tries of our own against Cardiff to reach 50 points. But, if we manage that and Benetton’s bonus point comes from losing by less than 7 in a tight, low-scoring game… who knows!”
All to play for then in what is sure to be an action-packed weekend of rugby.
Ospreys starting XV to face Cardiff
15. Max Nagy, 14. Luke Morgan, 13. Owen Watkin, 12. Kieran Williams, 11. Keelan Giles,
10. Dan Edwards, 9. Reuben Morgan-Williams
1. Nicky Smith, 2. Dewi Lake, 3. Tom Botha, 4. James Ratti, 5. Huw Sutton, 6. Jac Morgan,
7. Justin Tipuric (captain), 8. Morgan Morris.
Replacements:
16. Sam Parry, 17. Gareth Thomas,18. Rhys Henry,19. Victor Sekekete, 20. Harri Deaves,
21. Luke Davies, 22. Owen Williams , 23. Harri Houston.
[Lead image: Ospreys Rugby]
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