A report commissioned by the Ospreys says the evidence does not support the Welsh Rugby Union’s plan to cut Wales from four professional teams to three.
Researchers at Sheffield Hallam University concluded that the data “does not logically lead to a conclusion that the removal of one professional team in Wales is a strategic move grounded in evidence”, according to the club.
It is the Ospreys’ answer to the Keystone report the union used to back its plan, which put the club bottom of the four on money and crowds but top on results.
Where the fight for the west Wales licence stands
The WRU confirmed in July that Cardiff and the Dragons would be offered two of its three licences from the 2028-29 season. That leaves the Ospreys and the Scarlets competing for one place in the west.
Swansea’s council leader Rob Stewart called on chief executive Abi Tierney to quit the same day, pointing to a leaked recording in which she said she favoured a merger of the two west Wales clubs.
The union has since said it will name the west Wales club by the end of June 2027. Meanwhile, Swansea Council’s High Court challenge over the process has been paused for a month to give the union’s new leadership time to think again.
What the Sheffield Hallam report says
The full report has not been published. The Ospreys have released its headline findings ahead of publication later this month.
The first argument is derbies. The report says games between the four Welsh clubs made up 48% of league crowds at Welsh home games between 2012 and 2026, and that three clubs would cut the number of derbies from 12 a season to six.
On players, it warns that losing a team would create a “bottleneck”, with fewer top-level places in Wales and more Welsh players likely to move abroad.
It also finds that Wales have finished higher in the Six Nations in seasons when the Welsh clubs did well.
‘All four clubs contribute’
According to the Ospreys, the report finds something to credit at every club. Cardiff had the best average crowds over the period, the Scarlets were the most successful Welsh side in the European Cup, and the Dragons made the best use of their stadium.
For the Ospreys, it points to the strongest league record of the regional era: four titles, six play-off appearances and the best average finish of the Welsh clubs.
The club says it has had 47 players picked for Wales World Cup squads and 181 for Six Nations squads since 2008, more than any other Welsh club. It adds 22 British and Irish Lions selections, covering 15 players, on all six tours since 2005.
The money question the report doesn’t answer
The headline findings say little about how Wales would pay for four teams. The report looks at only a limited set of financial measures.
Money is the union’s main argument. The WRU lost £18.1m in the year to June 2026, more than twice its loss the year before.
The WRU has said it needs to cut its spending on professional rugby from £26m to £20m by 2028. Each of the four clubs currently gets about £6.5m.
Keystone’s figures put the Ospreys’ revenue at £9.2m in 2024-25, the lowest of the four. Their crowds averaged 4,900 that season, when they were still playing at the Swansea.com Stadium.
St Helen’s and the case from Swansea
The Ospreys say the picture has changed since they moved home. Swansea Council put £5.1m into rebuilding St Helen’s, and the club’s owners Y11 Sport & Media added £2.5m.
The first game at the rebuilt ground drew 5,592. The head of the United Rugby Championship said season tickets had doubled.
Ospreys managing director Richard Lancaster said: “We have completed phase one of the redevelopment of the historic ground at St Helen’s, and season ticket sales and sponsorship have been very encouraging.”
He added that this showed “the community and region are behind elite professional rugby football”.
‘We want four clubs’
Alun Wyn Jones, the former Wales captain who joined the Ospreys board in August, chaired the working group that commissioned the report.
He said: “We want four clubs. This is not about one club’s record against another’s.”
He added: “Cardiff, Dragons, Scarlets and Ospreys have all put players in a Wales jersey, and the report shows what the four of them bring to Welsh rugby together.”
He said decisions on the professional game “should rest on the fullest evidence available”, and that the club had asked the university “to follow the data wherever it led”.
Lancaster said the findings “underline the significant consequences that reducing the number of professional clubs could have for Welsh rugby as a whole”.
He added: “Before any such decision is taken, every option to sustain four clubs should be properly explored.”
‘The rationale for change is not supported by evidence’
Professor Keith Davids, one of the report’s four authors, said: “In our view, the rationale for change is not supported by evidence.”
He added: “Narrowing down the pool of players into fewer locations will narrow down the competition pool. This approach may not be helpful for the development of the whole system.”
Who did the work, and who paid for it
The report was written by the Sport and Physical Activity Research Centre at Sheffield Hallam. Its authors are Dr Steve Bullough, Tim Vernon, David Barrett and Prof Davids.
They looked at the 23 seasons since the regions were formed in 2003. They also reviewed the WRU’s own data, including the Keystone report and material the union published in October.
The Ospreys commissioned and paid for the report. The club says the conclusions are the university’s own and that the fee was fixed in advance, whatever the findings.
A new chair and a December summit
The report goes to the WRU board, Tierney and the Professional Rugby Board from 16 November. It will be published in full by the end of the month.
It arrives as new WRU chair Lyndon Faulkner reviews the plan to cut a team. He has said he will “look at everything”, including keeping four.
The Ospreys want the report put before the union’s summit with all four clubs in December. They will also offer briefings to the WRU, the other three clubs, and their own members and sponsors.
At the Senedd, a new cross-party group on Welsh rugby met for the first time this week, chaired by Gŵyr Abertawe MS John Davies.
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