SWANS: Could the World Cup boycott be worth a million a match to Swansea City?

The Europe-wide World Cup boycott could open an unexpected door for Swansea City: Premier League opposition at the Swansea.com Stadium, and up to £1m a match for hosting them.

That is the assessment of Rob Wilson, Professor of Applied Sport Finance, speaking via Andy’s Bet Club, looking at what happens to the football calendar if UEFA’s stand-off with FIFA runs into the 2030 World Cup qualifying windows.

With Wales among the 55 associations refusing FIFA competitions, qualifying breaks would leave club football with empty weekends and full squads.

Wilson believes not every Premier League club would want to spend those windows travelling. “Not every Premier League club would want to travel overseas during every break, particularly those balancing European commitments,” he said.

“Domestic friendlies against Championship, League One and League Two clubs would provide valuable gate receipts, hospitality and broadcasting opportunities.”

The numbers he puts on it are striking. “A Championship, League One or League Two club hosting a major Premier League side could generate between £500,000 and £1 million from a single fixture depending on attendance, sponsorship and commercial agreements,” Wilson said.

With six qualifying windows in a campaign, he estimates up to £6m could be on the table across a season for clubs that capitalise.

For the Swans, the fit is obvious: a 21,000-capacity stadium, a Championship stage, and a fanbase that would turn out for a marquee visitor on a blank weekend.

It would also land at a club that has been open about its need to grow income. Announcing the AG1 shirt deal at this week’s kit launch, chief executive Tom Gorringe said that “given the financial regulations within the league, generating more income is essential for the club to be able to compete”.

The economics work from the other end too, Wilson argues, with the biggest Premier League sides able to add £25-30m each from overseas tours and showcase matches in freed windows, while others stay closer to home.

For lower-league clubs the effect could go further. Wilson said League One and League Two sides hosting Premier League opposition through every break could generate between £1m and £4m over a season, “which would be transformational for many clubs’ finances”.

The professor did not spare the man who created the opportunity. “What an absolute disaster class by Infantino,” he said of the FIFA president’s investor plan, adding that a sustained boycott “would represent one of the biggest commercial crises in FIFA’s history”, with a worst-case cost he puts at more than £1bn.

All of it, for now, is hypothetical. The boycott stands only while FIFA’s proposal does, and a resolution before the qualifying windows would return the calendar to normal.

But if the stand-off holds, the clubs best placed to profit are the ones with big grounds, big catchments and Premier League neighbours within reach. On that measure, SA1 would be near the front of the queue.

Author

Richard Bond

Swansea-based sports journalist.
Twitter: @RichBond00
Email: RichardBond@swanseabaynews.com