Welsh Labour is bracing for a historic defeat as counting begins across Wales this morning – with senior party sources reportedly acknowledging for the first time that the party will lose power today.
Counting in the 2026 Senedd election will get underway from 9.30am at Neath Port Talbot Council and 10am in Swansea, with the first declarations expected from 2pm.
If the result matches pre-election polling and overnight expectations, today will mark the end of an unbroken Welsh Labour winning streak that goes back more than 100 years.
The party has been the largest in every major Welsh election – Westminster and Senedd – since 1922. It has been in power in Wales, either alone or in coalition, since the Senedd was first established in 1999.
Senior Labour sources, who had previously refused to accept that pre-election polls were accurate, were last night reportedly acknowledging that the party will lose power in Wales today.
Labour insiders are also said to believe it is on a knife edge as to whether First Minister Eluned Morgan will keep her own seat in Ceredigion Penfro.
If Morgan loses, the party will face an immediate scramble to appoint a new leader of Welsh Labour in the Senedd – even on an interim basis.
That decision could come within hours of the result.
Welsh Labour campaign chair Huw Irranca-Davies issued a statement at the close of polls last night acknowledging the difficulty of the campaign.
“We know this has been a tough election campaign, fought in difficult circumstances,” he said.
“After many years in government in Wales, and with Labour now governing across the UK, there was always going to be a strong mood for change and frustration. The ongoing pressures people face from the cost of living are real and hurt deeply.”
He said the party would reflect on the result with humility. “There were many tough messages heard on the doorstep. And in the days ahead, we will reflect carefully and listen with humility to what voters are telling us. There will be no dodging. No deflection. Just determination to put things right.”
He paid tribute to Eluned Morgan’s leadership during what he described as one of the hardest moments Welsh Labour has faced.
“Throughout this campaign, Eluned Morgan has shown positive, energetic, and determined leadership in very difficult times,” he said. “She took on the challenge during one of the hardest moments Welsh Labour has faced, leading with resilience, warmth, and focus.”
Plaid Cymru – projected by the final YouGov MRP to become the largest party in the new Senedd – struck a more measured tone in its overnight statement.
A spokesperson said the party was looking forward to the results with humility and with hope.
“Throughout this election, we have heard a clear appetite for change,” they said. “People want a government that will stand up for Wales and focus relentlessly on the key issues affecting their lives.”
The spokesperson said voters had been inspired by leader Rhun ap Iorwerth. “People have told us they have been inspired by Rhun ap Iorwerth’s leadership and driven by a desire for a positive alternative to Reform UK’s chaos and division,” they said.
The Plaid statement reflects the central political dynamic of this election – a tight battle between Plaid and Reform UK, both projected by the final pre-election polls to make significant gains at Welsh Labour’s expense.
Reform UK’s momentum was further underlined overnight by results from local elections in England.
Reform won more than 300 council seats across English local authorities in voting that took place yesterday – a strong performance that will boost the party’s confidence going into today’s Senedd count.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, lost more than 100 seats in those English elections – adding to a difficult electoral picture for the official UK opposition.
In Wales, two early constituency turnout figures have been confirmed – both showing turnout in the high 40s.
Casnewydd Islwyn recorded a turnout of 47.8% according to returning officer Beverly Owen, while neighbouring Blaenau Gwent Caerffilii Rhymni recorded 47.7%.
Turnout will be a key figure to watch as the day unfolds. A higher than expected turnout is generally seen as a positive indicator for Reform UK, with the party having focused much of its campaign on mobilising voters who have not traditionally turned out at Welsh elections.
Final turnout figures across all 16 Welsh constituencies will be confirmed as counts get underway throughout the morning.
The Electoral Commission’s chief executive Vijay Rangarajan praised the running of yesterday’s polls.
“Polling station staff dealt with any issues swiftly without disruption to the poll. Millions of people were able to cast their votes, and people had access to clear, reliable information about how to take part,” he said.
He said the Commission had not seen significant deepfakes affecting the elections, but would gather evidence from voters, candidates and others to inform a full assessment to be published in the autumn.
The first Senedd declarations are expected from 2pm, with Casnewydd Islwyn, Gwyr Abertawe and Sir Fynwy Torfaen the earliest in the country.
Sir Gaerfyrddin and Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr are expected to declare around 4pm, with the latest declaration expected from Fflint Wrecsam at 5.30pm.
A complete picture of the new Senedd should therefore be clear by early evening – at which point the focus will turn to coalition negotiations and the make-up of Wales’ next government.
Swansea Bay News will be reporting live from the Sir Gaerfyrddin count throughout the day, with updates from across south-west Wales as results come in.
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